Pollsters’ trade group: the most inaccurate Biden-Trump polls in 40 years


A preliminary assessment of the polls ahead of the 2020 presidential election by the leading professional public opinion research group found that surveys of the race between President BidenJoe BidenOvernight Defense & National Security – Milley Becomes Lightning Rod Democrats Hope Biden Can Overthrow Manchin and Sinema On The Money – Presented by Wells Fargo – Democrats move tax plan forward through obstacles MORE and old President TrumpDonald Trump Former Senator Heller to run for governor of Nevada Overnight Defense & National Security – Milley becomes lightning rod Joint Chiefs Chairman Milley becomes right lightning rod MORE were the most inaccurate in four decades.

Members of the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s task force on the 2020 election revealed their initial findings on Wednesday at the trade group’s annual conference, the Wall Street Journal reported. They said polls for the race overestimated Biden’s national support by nearly 4 percentage points in the two weeks leading up to the election.

The last time the polls overestimated a candidate’s support so drastically was in 1980, when the polls overestimated support for former President Carter by about 6 percentage points.

The task force outlined several explanations why opinion polls in 2020 were so far apart. On the one hand, some voters simply refused to participate in the polls, potentially skewing the results, the Journal reported.

It’s also possible that Trump may have produced new or casual voters who do not identify with any of the major political parties, making it difficult for pollsters to estimate what the electorate would look like. Trump has also regularly criticized public polls, potentially discouraging his supporters from participating.

The task force has yet to release its final report on polls in the 2020 election, which was based on an analysis of more than 2,000 polls taken before the November competition.

The analysis emerged from questions surrounding why the 2020 presidential race was so much closer than many polls suggested. In the run-up to the election, numerous public inquiries showed Biden had a large lead over Trump, including in states the former president ultimately won.

While the study managed to identify several potential reasons why polls failed to accurately predict the outcome of the election, experts have so far struggled to find a solution to the problem.

One possible complication may have been Trump’s presence on the ballot, which means things could potentially return to normal when his name is not on the ticket, group chairman Dan Merkle said. according to the Wall Street Journal. This idea is supported by the fact that polls for the 2018 midterm elections were largely accurate.


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